Shanghai Airport (600009): 19-year performance forecast reveals 20-year epidemic drags revenue
The company released a quick performance report for 2019 with a ten-year operating income of 109.
45 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.
52%, slightly lower than our updated 3 quarterly forecast and Wonder ‘s consensus forecast, initially the 4th quarter revenue growth change (2019Q4 single quarter revenue 27.
37 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.
The initial net profit of the mother is 50.
3 ppm, an increase of 18 in ten years.
88%, deducting non-net profit of 50.
33 ppm, an increase of 18 in ten years.
85%, basic profit income 2.
61 yuan, return on net assets reached 16.
7%, basically in line with our expectations.
Net margin was 46%, which remained stable.
Q4 single-quarter net profit attributable to mother 10.
3.6 billion, down 5 every year.
At 06%, the decline in net profit attributable to mothers in the fourth quarter was mainly due to the cost increase of approximately 300 million due to satellite depreciation.
From the perspective of production and transportation data, the number of domestic / international / regional aircraft takeoffs and landings increased gradually from January to December 20192.
29% / 1.
23%, passenger explosions gradually extended growth3.
3% / 4.
85%, the long-term growth of goods and mail increased by -4 year by year.
49% of cargo tungsten carbide continued.
Among them, domestic / international / regional aircraft takeoffs and landings increased by -0 from October to December.
65% / 2.
8% of visitors to Tanzania grow by 0 each year.
91% / 5.
63%, freight postal increase by 1 every year.
6% / 5.
27% / 1.
The contraction of regional production and transportation in the fourth quarter was mainly due to the continued geopolitical influence, the drag on the overall performance of transportation production and the tax-free income brought by traffic.
From the perspective of the expansion of airspace concerned by foreign countries, the summary of Shanghai Airport’s 2019/2020 winter and spring air season is basically unchanged in the same period last year, and international and regional improvements have been made.Since the winter and spring season starts from the low in October, the contribution to the forecast is limited, but it can be noted that the quantum growth rate of international passengers exceeds the growth rate of aircraft takeoffs and landings.
If the expansion of the airspace is smooth and the incremental capacity brought by the satellite hall is expected, the heavy volume in the summer and autumn or winter and spring of 2020 is expected to have a positive impact on the company.
Production and transportation data released in January showed the current manifestation of the effects of new coronavirus pneumonia, and aircraft takeoffs and landings were alternately placed.
39%, the number of passenger explosions dropped by 5.
39%, the long-term decline of goods and mail 9.
The domestic / international / regional takeoffs and landings changed twice -5.
36% / 4.
56%, domestic / international / regional passenger explosions changed -9 respectively.
61% / 4.
It is expected that the epidemic will be severely affected in February and March. At the same time, restrictions on the arrival of Chinese passengers by many countries will reduce or suspend flights. It is expected that it will adversely affect the transportation data and performance in the first quarter. Airlines may actively reduce capacity and control costs appropriately.
At the same time, the company’s tax-free income has also been affected by interference, and in the last quarter of last year, the high base number affected. By 2020, Q1 revenue and net profit performance are expected to drift with a high probability.
However, if the epidemic situation is successfully controlled significantly at the end of the first quarter, we expect that the production and transportation and duty-free business will still resume quickly, and we are optimistic about the expected bottom-line income.
In addition, the 19-year performance report shows that the company’s sales expenses and management expenses have been further better controlled, and equity investment income has maintained a stable and good performance.
As of December 31, the fixed assets were on a par with the three quarterly reports, and no asset consolidation is expected in the fourth quarter.
Because the project budget funds at the end of the third quarter did not reach the total budget of US $ 16.7 billion, the remaining project funds may be carried forward in the future, and they will continue to be updated after the annual report is published.
Shanghai Airport’s location advantage and air travel structure are its core competitiveness. In the company’s future revenue and profit increase, the expansion of the duty-free business is a key business with a real high growth value. Its tax-free income guarantees it to fight the epidemic.The resulting fluctuations are the core asset of many excellent business models.
However, under the circumstances of the current epidemic situation, the revenue and profit forecasts are lowered for the breakdown of production data and the rising cost of the satellite hall production, and the forecast value in 2022.
It is expected to achieve 115 in 2020/21/22.
04 billion, net profit attributable to mother realized 50.
880,000 yuan, the budget income is 2.
63 yuan, ROE is 14.
89% / 16.
92% / 16.
33%, net net assets 18.
52 yuan, assuming the use of 27X PE for net income in 2022, and a 10% discount to 2020 to get a 12-month target price of 81 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk Warning: The epidemic continues to affect, the macro economy is less than expected, and the growth is always less than expected.